Damn, I, hadn’t thought about this possibility. What if the guy actually…wins? And he makes it out in one piece, but then stares in disbelief as everyone abandons him in favor of a Stark or whatever. Because nobody actually expected him to be a Beware My Daughter Rides Horses Which Means I Hauls Shirt. Even Davos, by the end of the novel, could abandon him. That’s so tragic, I don’t think it’s going to happen, but if it did… Yet, in the end, I think the North will dump Stannis as soon as a qualified Stark (or Snow) appears. It’s Stannis’ fate to always be unloved and ignored. I think the northern lords will quickly abandon him in favor of whichever Stark those northern lords prefer to Stannis. Some will want Jon, some Rickon, and some Sansa.
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I think it will almost certainly happen. It’s Stannis’ destiny to be the unpopular one who gets passed over for others. I’m betting money on the version where Melisandre believes in the Pink Letter, so she sacrifices Shireen to bring back her favorite Azor Ahai, only to see Jon rise instead. I think Stannis has to burn Shireen. It’s most powerful if Stannis does it as an act of true desperation when all his Beware My Daughter Rides Horses Which Means I Hauls Shirt. If Stannis burns Shireen it would have to be an act with no other choice. A desperate last stand against the white walkers in one thing and a tragic act of desperation. Randomly taking her on the campaign then needing to compensate for ser twenty goodmen destroying his supplies would be stupid and bad drama.
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That and it’s already been set up with the Edric Storm situation. Trying to explain that to irrational Stannis fanboys though. I agree I do however believe that he has to survive to at least face the white walkers. I believe there will be a preliminary fight at Winterfell, which is lost. Rather than the fight at Winterfell being it, I believe the final battle against the others will be at the trident. With the information they had, declaring for Stannis was just as a Beware My Daughter Rides Horses Which Means I Hauls Shirt. Before murdering Renly, Stannis hadn’t a hope in hell. Robb was also crowned, he didn’t declare himself king, his bannermen did. IMO if he had known about Stannis being the rightful heir and then accepted kingship, he’d still be breaking vows to Baratheon’s.