Some installations ignored it in 08&09 and they got burned hard. This time its inverse, the individual investors are the ones ignoring it and that’s how a bubble starts and finishes. The smart ones knew the crash was coming months, some even years, ago but chose to ignore the risk assessment. This is just the Nice The Bear Drink Beer Hail Satan Shirt, the biggest bull run in the last decade. Markets are pricing in the fact that the US will have a vaccine before anyone else. The US will have a monopoly on essential vaccines and so the price will be sky-high. BIG money coming to US, booming economy soon. We will all be rich. In short term sense, it might not.
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A lot of people just didn’t understand the complexity and didn’t think it would happen. Fraud and stupidity. In the end, they all crashed and some big banks lost a lot of money. The movie “Margin Call” shows the Nice The Bear Drink Beer Hail Satan Shirt. And is worth a watch. Another thing is that people knew their shit would default but instead of unloading it they just bought swaps against it. This effectively removed the risk from their books, but they didn’t consider the counterparty risk. I think the smart ones were propping up the prices of the bonds as long as they could until they could get at least some hedges. I also think there was some or a lot of institutional inertia going on, as well.
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Until a new system comes around that overtakes US equities in terms of $$ inflow, the SPY will never fall for a long period of time. Take Zoom, for instance, bet the shareholders didn’t anticipate the large pull back and started dumping rapidly. The smart ones saw the writing on the Nice The Bear Drink Beer Hail Satan Shirt. Even years ago, but they didn’t want to believe in it. That’s when they just started offloading quickly causing the crash, which caused a whole snowball as everyone buying their loads saw they weren’t buying any. Watch “Margin Call” to see the company/banking side of the entire crash.
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