Honestly, I don’t know. I signed up bc Nice This Medical Assistant Shirt it’s my goal to be an Astronaut but looking at the Falcon 9, it took 10 or so years of reliable flights before the first people were put on top of one of those boosters. That’s also considering SpaceX’s final major iteration of the Falcon 9, being Block 5, has also been flying for a few years already (at least 3 IDR). So Dear Moon launching in 2023 is EXTREMELY ambitious. Now if you said “2030” then I’d believe that more considering the massive complexity surrounding Starship. But assuming everything goes rather “flawlessly” I don’t see people flying on Starship anytime before the late 2020s. I could totally be wrong and this does happen in 2023 but we will see as time passes. I hope I’m wrong bc it would be cool to have people on the Moon by 2024.
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Going from reds to human-rated in two years is way too fast. I’ll eat my Nice This Medical Assistant Shirt hat if I’m wrong, but this isn’t happening. Edit: I’m not saying starship is a failure. I’m saying two years is way too optimistic for human flights of a completely unproven vehicle. They still haven’t fired more than three raptors at the same time! 3-4 years is much more realistic. I’m not just a starship hater; I don’t think neutron will be orbital by 2024 either. Y’all need to stop white knighting. I think their plan is to get it working and then just constantly launch them at a very fast rate to brute force the human-rated rating of it. But if SpaceX does manage to get this fully working and Hot Judge Gardner Shirt. They could quickly build a few of the newest ones and have a launch every week or two. With 16 months left on the clock.
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